The 4 stages of economic evolution
It starts with an economy based on agriculture.
Ed Yardeni
Central bankers are unknowingly disrupting adjustment mechanisms that automatically eliminate excesses in the world
Central bankers' obsession with moderating the business cycle is actually contributing to the problems they are trying to fix.
The best cure for low commodity prices is low commodity prices
"World oil demand rose 2.0% y/y to a new record high last month."
The canaries in China's coalmine
"September’s flash M-PMI fell to 47.0, with the output component down to 45.7--both at 78-month lows."
The US is winning again
The US is seeing relative outperformance.
There's certainly some 'rolling over' going on in stocks
"A few technicians are already saying the market is making a major top and entering a bear market."
It looks like the next recession will start in March 2019
"Given the Fed’s latest decision to do nothing, it’s safe to bet that the next recession won’t be caused by the tightening of monetary policy anytime soon."
Fund flow data shows some interesting developments
"US financial corporations had net equity issuance of $250 billion over the past year."
China has a capital outflow problem
"China’s economy seems to getting a lot less bang per yuan"
The US is on the fast track
"The plunge in gasoline prices has supercharged gasoline usage, which is up 3.2% y/y through early September."
Stock market sentiment is so bearish that it might be bullish
"The flash-crash correction and all the volatility have depressed the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio, which fell to 0.92 this week."
Here's another sign global liquidity is drying up
There is weakness in reserves growth.
The bear case is fairly compelling right now — then again, it's always compelling
Don't let your emotions frighten you into thinking it's a bear market.
If you have any doubt about the US economy, consider these two bullish trends
Two numbers you missed while fretting about the global recession.
The US economy looks like it's getting even stronger
Q2 GDP could be revised higher.
Oil demand is surging
The price drop has stimulated demand.
This could be the beginning of the 'Bullard Bungee Rebound'
On Wednesday, stocks rebounded 3.9%.
YARDENI: The US economy is looking pretty good
"The latest batch of US economic indicators certainly looks upbeat."
YARDENI: It could be years before the Fed raises rates
Investors who watch the correlation between the S&P 500 and the Fed's balance sheet are getting nervous.
YARDENI: This is not what bears look like
"I’ve observed many times before that bear markets are caused by recessions when corporate profits decline along with the economy."