Investors are betting that a peace deal and sanctions relief would boost Russian asset values. Even if that happens, plenty of uncertainty remains.
Betting markets are shifting, with the odds of the war ending in the first 90 days of Trump's presidency down to about 20% on Monday.
Russia's central bank has run out of good options to prop up its sagging currency, researchers at the Carnegie Endowment wrote this week.
Vladimir Putin dismissed the ruble's latest tumble, but analysts say falling oil prices and sanctions spell problems for Russia's economy.
Investors have been spooked after Russia was hit with fresh sanctions and as tensions rose after a hypersonic missile attach on Ukraine.
As a key Treasury license is set to expire this month, it could become a lot harder for Russia to transact in foreign currencies.
Payment scuffles between Russian companies and Chinese banks have escalated in recent weeks, with Chinese firms pulling back amid fear of sanctions.
Almost all Chinese banks, even small regional ones, are refusing to accept direct transactions from Russia, business execs have told Russian media.
Ruble volatility will get worse in Russia amid fresh US sanctions, but this offers a way for the Chinese yuan to cement its role, a think tank says.
China's yuan fell to its lowest value against the ruble in a year as holders eye the impact of sanctions and as central banks boost dollar holdings.
Russians were lining up at one lender that was still offering dollars after trade was restricted following new sanctions, Bloomberg reported.
Russia's use of "toxic" currencies has been slashed in half over the past year, Putin said.
Trade volumes from partners such as Turkey and China have slagged in the first quarter, as foreign dealers pullback amid a US sanctions threat.
Both Russia and Iran have been reducing their reliance on the dollar since the US leveraged its currency's dominance to impose economic sanctions on both countries.
China and Russia have more than 90% de-dollarized their bilateral trade, Russia's prime minister has said.
Western companies exiting Russia must sell assets in rubles or else face delays and perhaps losses to transfer dollars or euros abroad.
Russia's plans to spend even more on its war in Ukraine could set up the economy for high inflation and a deteriorating quality of life.
Moscow is trying to prop up the slumping ruble, which has shed around a quarter of its value this year as the war in Ukraine rages on.
The last time the ruble deteriorated past the 100-per-dollar threshold, Russia's central bank hiked interest rates sharply.
The yuan's share of Russian import invoicing has jumped to 20% since the Ukraine war from 3% before, a study found.